Forecast of main economic indicators of the industry in 2021
1. Regulated revenue: 35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%. The overall revenue is better than that of 2018, reaching a new high in the past six years.
2. Production of industrial machines: 9 million units (including inventory), with a year-on-year increase of 45%. The production capacity of key enterprises has improved significantly, and the industry production has remained at a high level throughout the year. The total output of industrial machines has exceeded the level of 2018, which is the highest development point in the past decade.
3. Domestic sales of industrial machines: 3.2 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 39%. Domestic sales increased substantially in the first half of the year, and gradually slowed down and became weak in the second half of the year. Domestic sales were generally better than those in 2019, but had not recovered to the level of 2018.
4. Industry export: USD 3 billion, up 30% year on year. The annual export volume of the industry is expected to exceed US$ 3 billion for the first time, a record high. It is estimated that the export volume of industrial sewing machines will be close to 4.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28%, a record high.
The fourth quarter situation and the forecast of economic indicators for the whole year of 2021
Fourth quarter situation
1. The global economy is slowing down. At the end of the third quarter, the signs of global economic slowdown have been fully revealed. The pressure of China's economic slowdown increased, the economic growth of the United States fell short of expectations, and the manufacturing indexes of the euro zone, Japan, South Korea and BRICS countries dropped significantly. In October, the International Monetary Fund lowered the global economic growth rate by 0.1 percentage point.
2. Downstream demand is weak. In the third quarter, the prosperity index of China's textile industry dropped significantly, and the garment export orders fell month-on-month. In the first nine months, the garment investment only maintained a low growth of 3.1%, and the demand for sewing equipment was relatively low. Focus on the market, such as after the Vietnam epidemic was unsealed, due to a large number of migrant workers returning home, the unemployment rate of clothing, footwear and other industries is close to 50%, and it is expected that the resumption of work and production will be gradually normal until early next year.
3. The epidemic situation in COVID-19 continues. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has spread in many places. Most countries let go of the restriction of choice and the coexistence of viruses, resulting in the epidemic situation rebounding again. Some countries have tightened the epidemic prevention measures again, and the impact of the epidemic situation will continue.
4. External challenges are still great. At present, the situation of global supply chain interruption, shortage of shipping resources and high sea freight has not obviously eased. Global inflation and soaring energy prices will lead to the decline of purchasing power and demand, and the recovery of global economy and supply chain will be slower than expected.
Prospect of Industry Economic Development in 2022
Opportunities and challenges faced by the industry in 2022 Looking forward to 2022, the industry will face both opportunities and challenges. Opportunity:
(1) The international economy is expected to continue to recover. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will grow by 4.9% in 2022, and the WTO predicts that the global merchandise trade volume will increase by 4.7% in 2022. This forecast index is still based on the optimistic judgment of sustained economic recovery under the continuous alleviation of epidemic situation. China's economy still has strong development resilience, and its GDP is expected to increase by 5.6% in 2022.
Although the inflation in the United States is very serious, the lagging effect of previous rounds of financial assistance, coupled with the newly adopted $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan, makes the manufacturing industry willing to replenish stocks, the consumer demand is still strong, and there is still room for economic growth. Japan plans to launch a large-scale economic stimulus plan of 79 trillion yen from the end of 2021 to fully promote economic recovery and growth. Overall, in 2022, the global economy will still be in the stage of sustained recovery in the post-epidemic period, and all countries are expected to increase stimulus after the economic slowdown bottoms out. In the second half of 2022, various trade and output activities are expected to be very active, and international demand will be fully released, which will bring strong support to the steady and sustainable development of the industry.
(2) Market demand still has room for development. Mainly in five aspects: First, the export prospects are generally promising. In 2021, our industry's exports to 75% countries are growing positively, to 22% countries, doubling, and to 38% countries, increasing by more than 50%. It is expected that the inertia of industry's export growth will continue until the first half of 2022.
At the same time, Sino-US relations are expected to ease, the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement will come into effect next year, and the supply chains of clothing and shoes will be further transferred and adjusted to neighboring countries and regions close to European and American markets, which will bring new opportunities for sewing equipment export. Leather Sewing Machine, Shoe Sewing Machine, Pattern Sewing Machine, Industrial Sewing Machine.
The second is the release of the dividend from Vietnam epidemic. Vietnam is the largest export market in the industry. The Vietnamese government proposes that GDP will increase by 6-6.5% in 2022, which will accelerate the economic recovery in all directions. In the third and fourth quarters of this year, the decline of our industry's exports to Vietnam has left a certain gap, and its demand is expected to be released soon next year.
Third, the downstream industries in Europe and the United States replenish stocks to stimulate demand. Downstream brands such as clothing, shoes and boots in Europe and America are affected by the interruption of supply chain and the shortage of shipping resources, and their inventory is empty. The superposition of replenishment demand and consumption recovery demand will promote the centralized release of orders in downstream industries and the strong rebound of production.
According to McKinsey's prediction, if the epidemic situation continues to ease, the global textile and garment industry is expected to return to the level of 2019 in the third quarter of 2022.
Fourth, overseas sewing equipment distribution lags behind demand release. Affected by epidemic situation, shipping and price increase, overseas sewing equipment dealers are lagging behind in demand release, and there is still room for replenishment.
Fifth, China's investment in clothing is expected to gradually exert its strength. China's regulated clothing investment has been at a low level for two consecutive years. With the gradual increase of the national policy of expanding domestic demand, especially after the epidemic, the downstream industries will accelerate the development layout of smart manufacturing, and the investment in clothing and other industries is expected to continue to improve in 2022. (For example, the home textile industry will set 2022 as a special year for intelligent manufacturing promotion, and will promote the equipment upgrade of home textile enterprises through a series of measures. )
Post time: Apr-26-2022
